Has the S&P Bottomed?

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Has the S&P Bottomed?

Posted on 01/06/15

The last five trading sessions have not been kind to S&P Bulls, as the market is down approximately -4.4% over that period of time.  Tonight, S&P futures are trading about +0.8% above today’s low.  So, has the market bottomed?  Before you go piling into new long positions, consider the following:

  • S&P sentiment decreased from 34% to 22% Bulls on 01/06/15
  • S&P is now 22.2% Bulls below its sentiment 5 SMA (44.2% Bulls)
  • Since 2006, S&P was >20.2% Bulls below its sentiment 5 SMA seven other times
  • Dates: 05/17/06, 02/27/07, 03/02/07, 03/05/07, 07/26/07, 07/27/07, 05/06/10
  • S&P futures made a new low 71% of the time (5/7) within two trading days
  • S&P futures made a new low 100% of the time (7/7) within 13 trading days
  • Odds favor $ES_F to trade below 1984.25 by January 23rd, 2015

Even though S&P has traded sharply lower over the past five trading sessions, the sentiment data suggest we should see new lows over the coming days.  If you’re looking to get long for a bounce, it appears as though you’ll have a better entry-point sometime in the near future.

Sentrade

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