Posted on 01/07/15

Bonds had a strong start to the year, gaining +2.5% over the first three trading sessions of 2015.  Those gains helped push the market a new multiyear high.  With Bonds trading about 1% lower from the recent high, did Bonds just put in a significant top?  Let’s take a look…

  • On 01/06/15, Bond sentiment closed at 97% Bulls
  • Bond sentiment also closed 12.5% Bulls above its sentiment 10SMA (84.5% Bulls)
  • Since 2006, Bonds closed >95% Bulls and >10% above its sentiment 10SMA 11 times
  • Bonds made a new closing high 91% of the time (10/11) within 12 trading days

Despite the relatively high level of Bullish sentiment in the Bond market, odds favor a new closing high in the coming days.  If you’re looking to enter a swing short trade in the Bond market, the data suggest holding off for the moment.