Crude Oil has increased sharply since the US Presidential Election, rising about 58% since the low on 11/02/20. However, on Friday we saw a close about 4% from the recent high. So, are the Bears in control now or will the Bulls take control and push the market higher? Will Crude Oil prices rise? Let’s look at the historical sentiment data and analyze how price responded in similar situations. [...]
Below are Maxon's stock market swing trade systematic trades. This year proved how vital sticking to a trading strategy system can be. 2020 was wild as we faced a worldly pandemic, the quickest recession on record, and all-time market highs all within the same year. With the chaos of a worldly pandemic its hard to keep emotions in check and trade with a solid strategy plan. When others thought [...]
What. A. Year! Pretty sure we can all agree 2020 sucked and it just goes to show how important sticking to a plan can be. We had a strong market crash in March, but quickly recovered and stuck to our plan which paid off for us quickly. In all the turmoil that was March, we were able to sleep easier at night as we followed the data and always [...]
Despite an amazingly complicated year, our futures portfolio brought a return of 69.1% profit. 2020, was a doozy as we faced a worldly pandemic, the quickest recession on record, and all-time-highs all within the same year. All of this chaos just goes to show how important sticking to a plan can be. When others thought markets would crash, we stayed the course and followed the signals. Having a plan [...]
The Nikkei index has been on a tear since the US Presidential Election, trading up +22% since the end of October 2020. As one would expect, that move also drove a significant amount of bullish sentiment. Not only did Nikkei futures close at a staggering 93% Bulls on 01/08, but sentiment increased 18% Bulls over the past four days. While this may lead some to think a sharp drop in [...]
Last week, S&P Futures saw extreme moves in both price and sentiment. With last week's news of a COVID-19 vaccine, S&P Futures spiked to new all-time highs. Along with the move higher in price, sentiment also increased +8% Bulls to 69% Bulls. Looking at how the rest of this week plays out, price and sentiment should swing slightly. However, historically, both have ultimately closed higher. While this backdrop may [...]
Last week’s price-action in the Index Futures was uneventful but also remarkably interesting. The market showed extreme strength in the face of weakness and extreme weakness in the face of strength. Just when it looked like the market was going to break out of its trading range it stopped abruptly and reversed. This action actually gives us a great short setup signal for the S&P. The sentiment data also [...]
The S&P Futures have been on a tremendous run over the past several months with the market gaining over 60% since the low on March 23rd. Even though last week’s price action on S&P Futures continued to the upside, it’s interesting to note the volatility index (VIX) moved higher as well. We see similar trends when looking at the sentiment data – since 08/25, S&P Futures increased from 87% [...]
Live Cattle futures have been on a steady move higher since price bottomed in early April. Like price, sentiment moved higher during that move - bottoming at 8% Bulls on 04/03 and peaking at 93% Bulls on both 08/11 and 08/12. Even though price continued to move higher through 08/14, sentiment dropped to 85% Bulls – that type of divergence always catches our attention. In this case, we think this [...]
The US Dollar is in an interesting spot at the moment. Bears point to massive money printing to justify its continued decline. Bulls cite its oversold conditions and technical support to defend a move higher from here. In our view, both groups will be right – it just depends on the timeframe. Let’s look at the recent sentiment data on Euro Futures to show you what we mean. Euro Futures [...]
Thus far, 2020 hasn’t been kind to Coffee Bulls – Coffee Futures hit their 2020 high on 01/02 and then proceeded to trade down to an all-time low in mid-June. Even with such a bearish backdrop, we find ourselves with a sentiment setup that could lead to a sharp countertrend rally over the next few weeks. Last Friday, sentiment on Coffee Futures closed at 22% Bulls, which was up +7% [...]
Lumber futures have been on fire recently (I know, I couldn’t help myself), closing at 93% Bulls on 07/10/20. That’s the highest sentiment reading for Lumber Futures since they hit 95% Bulls over two years ago on 05/17/18. As always, the question now is what happens next? If the past is any indication, Lumber Bulls should expect more upside from here - let’s take a look at the details. [...]